Receipts First

2026-08-17 · this week's calls, with the running record attached

Scorecard (all published tickers)

Market-adjusted directional calls: 56% correct — 150 hits, 118 misses; 95% confidence interval 50%–62%; no-edge baseline 50%. 1671 unattributable claims voided, not scored.
The sample is still small. Every claim was published before its result window and scored against real returns. Nothing is graded after the fact.

Current read by horizon

RHMDefense & rearmament1w
ASMLSemiconductorsno live claims
CEGNuclear & powerno live claims
CCJNuclear & powerno live claims
MPCritical materialsno live claims
FCXCritical materials1m   3m
NTRAgriculture1w
ZIMShipping & tradeno live claims
SLVPrecious metals1m   3m   6m
NVDASemiconductorsno live claims
AMDSemiconductorsno live claims
AVGOSemiconductorsno live claims
MRVLSemiconductors1m   3m
NEENuclear & power1m
MSFTBig tech & platformsno live claims
GOOGLBig tech & platformsno live claims
AMZNBig tech & platformsno live claims
METABig tech & platforms1m   3m
JPMFinancials & insurance1m   3m
GSFinancials & insurance1m   3m
CBFinancials & insurance1m   3m
LLYHealthcareno live claims
UNHHealthcare1m   3m
XOMEnergy1m
CVXEnergyno live claims
COSTConsumer & retail1m
WMTConsumer & retailno live claims
CATIndustrials & machineryno live claims
DEIndustrials & machineryno live claims
QBTSQuantum computingno live claims
SPCXSPACs & new issuesno live claims
↑ long · ↓ short · ↕ split — read with "already priced in?" · → range-bound

Dated events this week

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Not investment advice. Informational only. Published on a deliberate delay; every item keeps its original "as of" date.