Receipts First
2026-08-03 · this week's calls, with the running record attached
Scorecard (all published tickers)
Market-adjusted directional calls: 52% correct — 57 hits, 53 misses; 95% confidence interval 43%–61%; no-edge baseline 50%. 678 unattributable claims voided, not scored.
The sample is still small. Every claim was published before its result window and scored against real returns. Nothing is graded after the fact.
Current read by horizon
| RHM | Defense & rearmament | 1w ↓ |
| ASML | Semiconductors | no live claims |
| CEG | Nuclear & power | no live claims |
| CCJ | Nuclear & power | no live claims |
| MP | Critical materials | 1w ↓ |
| FCX | Critical materials | no live claims |
| NTR | Agriculture | 1w ↓ |
| ZIM | Shipping & trade | no live claims |
| SLV | Precious metals | 1w → |
| NVDA | Semiconductors | no live claims |
| AMD | Semiconductors | 1m ↓ |
| AVGO | Semiconductors | no live claims |
| MRVL | Semiconductors | 1w ↑ |
| NEE | Nuclear & power | 1w → 1m ↑ |
| MSFT | Big tech & platforms | no live claims |
| GOOGL | Big tech & platforms | no live claims |
| AMZN | Big tech & platforms | no live claims |
| META | Big tech & platforms | 1w ↓ |
| JPM | Financials & insurance | 1w → |
| GS | Financials & insurance | 1w → |
| CB | Financials & insurance | 1w → |
| LLY | Healthcare | 1w ↑ |
| UNH | Healthcare | 1w → |
| XOM | Energy | no live claims |
| CVX | Energy | 1w ↓ 3m → |
| COST | Consumer & retail | no live claims |
| WMT | Consumer & retail | 1w → 3m ↓ |
| CAT | Industrials & machinery | no live claims |
| DE | Industrials & machinery | no live claims |
| QBTS | Quantum computing | no live claims |
| SPCX | SPACs & new issues | 1w ↓ |
↑ long · ↓ short · ↕ split — read with "already priced in?" · → range-bound
Dated events this week
- 2026-08-05 · AMD: AMD reports Q2 2026 earnings covering data center GPU/CPU momentum and MI-series ramp.
- 2026-08-05 · CEG: Constellation reports Q2 2026 earnings including updated full-year adjusted EPS guidance and hedging disclosur
- 2026-08-05 · NTR: Nutrien reports Q2 2026 earnings and updates full-year guidance.
- 2026-08-06 · MP: MP Materials reports Q2 2026 earnings covering NdPr pricing realization and magnet ramp progress.
- 2026-08-06 · RHM: Rheinmetall reports Q2/H1 2026 results with updated order backlog, sales, and margin guidance.
- 2026-08-07 · LLY: Eli Lilly reports Q2 2026 earnings with GLP-1 franchise revenue and full-year guidance update.
Not investment advice. Informational only. Published on a deliberate delay; every item keeps its original "as of" date.